Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 27 (Sun) · 3:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Minnesota Golden Gophers 30%
Washington Huskies 70%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1735 vs 1506 (50% blend)· Points per game 28.0 vs 35.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1735 vs 1506
+20.0%p Points per game
28.0 vs 35.0
-4.0%p
Head to head Minnesota Golden Gophers Washington Huskies
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 64%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 212yds (per game 53.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 48.6· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 42.8 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Dezmen Roebuck receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brian Bonner Jr. rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Washington Huskies Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1735 vs 1506 (50% blend)· Points per game 28.0 vs 35.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/28 Miss
70% Both total runs 63.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 63.5 Over· Totals Over Minnesota Golden Gophers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 27/25 Hit
30% Winning margin8 Washington Huskies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Washington Huskies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Washington Huskies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Washington Huskies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 CL Chris Lawson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 212yds (per game 53.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 48.6· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 42.8 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
64% Dezmen Roebuck receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Lawson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Brian Bonner Jr. rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Noah Jennings receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Smith receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Darius Taylor rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Javon Tracy receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Thomas rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Trey Cooley rush yds 27.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Baron Naone receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Drake Lindsey pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Javon Tracy 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Elijah Brown pass yds 84.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Dezmen Roebuck 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Noah Jennings 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Noah Jennings 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Dezmen Roebuck 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Elijah Brown pass yds 84.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Trey Cooley rush yds 27.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Baron Naone receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Drake Lindsey pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Javon Tracy 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Thomas rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Darius Taylor rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javon Tracy receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brian Bonner Jr. rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Noah Jennings receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalen Smith receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Lawson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Dezmen Roebuck receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Lawson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Washington Huskies team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Minnesota Golden Gophers team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Washington Huskies Team pass yds 254.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Washington Huskies Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Minnesota Golden Gophers Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Minnesota Golden Gophers Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.