Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 9:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Mississippi State Bulldogs 76%
South Carolina Gamecocks 24%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
38.5 vs 43.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Mississippi State Bulldogs South Carolina Gamecocks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Nyck Harbor receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Evans III receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sanfrisco Magee receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Mississippi State Bulldogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/35 Hit
76% Both total runs 81.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 81.5 Under· Totals Under South Carolina Gamecocks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1655 vs 1674 (50% blend)· Points per game 38.5 vs 43.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/42 Miss
24% Winning margin8 South Carolina Gamecocks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% South Carolina Gamecocks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% South Carolina Gamecocks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Mississippi State Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ South Carolina Gamecocks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Mississippi State Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Mississippi State Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Mississippi State Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Nyck Harbor receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Evans III receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sanfrisco Magee receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kamario Taylor rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Donovan Murph receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Matt Fuller receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Marquis Johnson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under LaNorris Sellers rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Matt Fuller rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Fluff Bothwell rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Anthony Evans III 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Sanfrisco Magee 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under LaNorris Sellers pass yds 219.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kamario Taylor pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Matt Fuller 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Nyck Harbor 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Nyck Harbor 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Matt Fuller 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under LaNorris Sellers pass yds 219.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kamario Taylor pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Sanfrisco Magee 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Matt Fuller rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Fluff Bothwell rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Anthony Evans III 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over LaNorris Sellers rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Marquis Johnson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Donovan Murph receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Matt Fuller receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kamario Taylor rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nyck Harbor receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Evans III receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sanfrisco Magee receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 South Carolina Gamecocks team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Mississippi State Bulldogs team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points South Carolina Gamecocks Team pass yds 264.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Carolina Gamecocks Team rush yds 234.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Mississippi State Bulldogs Team pass yds 314.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Mississippi State Bulldogs Team rush yds 189.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.