Missouri State Bears at SMU Mustangs — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 27 (Sun) · 1:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Missouri State Bears 4%
SMU Mustangs 96%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1695 vs 1292 (50% blend)· Points per game 37.0 vs 24.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1695 vs 1292
+25.8%p Points per game
37.0 vs 24.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Missouri State Bears SMU Mustangs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 65%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Yamir Knight receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Yannick Smith receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 SMU Mustangs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1695 vs 1292 (50% blend)· Points per game 37.0 vs 24.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/25 Hit
96% Both total runs 61.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 61.5 Over· Totals Over Missouri State Bears Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/35 Miss
4% Winning margin8 SMU Mustangs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 37.0 vs 24.0 → expected margin 13.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
73% SMU Mustangs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ SMU Mustangs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Missouri State Bears within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 SMU Mustangs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Missouri State Bears within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Missouri State Bears within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Missouri State Bears within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 JR Jmariyae Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
65% Yamir Knight receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Yannick Smith receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Cooper receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Cooper 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jmariyae Robinson receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dramekco Green rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ramone Green Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kendrick Raphael rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Myers receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Miller receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Breezy Dubar rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kevin Jennings pass yds 309.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Skyler Locklear pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Isaiah Myers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Yamir Knight 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Yamir Knight 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Myers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kevin Jennings pass yds 309.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Skyler Locklear pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Breezy Dubar rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kendrick Raphael rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Isaiah Myers receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mekhi Miller receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dramekco Green rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ramone Green Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jalen Cooper 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jmariyae Robinson receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalen Cooper receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Yamir Knight receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Yannick Smith receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jmariyae Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 SMU Mustangs team runs 37.5 Over· Team Points Missouri State Bears team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points SMU Mustangs Team pass yds 439.5 Over· Team Pass Yds SMU Mustangs Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Missouri State Bears Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Missouri State Bears Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.