Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 8 (Thu) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Missouri State Bears 52%
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 48%
Locked before start
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 81% Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 72% Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 48% Hit Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 1-4 vs 2-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1242 vs 1241
-4.7%p Points per game
19.8 vs 24.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Missouri State Bears Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jmariyae Robinson receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Quincy Burroughs receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
81% Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Missouri State Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Missouri State Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Missouri State Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Missouri State Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Jmariyae Robinson receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Quincy Burroughs receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ramone Green Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Myers receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Miller receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ajay Allen rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jmariyae Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Breezy Dubar rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cameron Flowers receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brock Glenn rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Skyler Locklear pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Isaiah Myers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jonathan Stafford Jr. 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Cameron Flowers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cameron Flowers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Isaiah Myers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Skyler Locklear pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Brock Glenn rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Cameron Flowers receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Breezy Dubar rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jmariyae Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Ajay Allen rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ramone Green Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Isaiah Myers receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mekhi Miller receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Quincy Burroughs receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jmariyae Robinson receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Missouri State Bears Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 2-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
runs 13/35 Miss
52% Both total runs 43.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 43.5 Under· Totals Under Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-4 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1242 vs 1241 (50% blend)· Points per game 19.8 vs 24.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
runs 34/14 Hit
48% Team stats6 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Missouri State Bears team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team pass yds 259.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Missouri State Bears Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Missouri State Bears Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.