Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Missouri Tigers 17%
Mississippi State Bulldogs 83%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1674 vs 1679 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.0 vs 35.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1674 vs 1679
+4.2%p Points per game
43.0 vs 35.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Missouri Tigers Mississippi State Bulldogs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 62%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 185yds (per game 46.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 49.0· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 43.1 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.50)
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Donovan Olugbode receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Naeshaun Montgomery receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Mississippi State Bulldogs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1674 vs 1679 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.0 vs 35.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/25 Hit
83% Both total runs 78.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 78.5 Under· Totals Under Missouri Tigers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/32 Miss
17% Winning margin8 Missouri Tigers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
68% Mississippi State Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Missouri Tigers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Missouri Tigers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Mississippi State Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Mississippi State Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Missouri Tigers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Mississippi State Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 KT Kamario Taylor rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Low
season 4games 185yds (per game 46.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 49.0· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 43.1 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.50)
62% Donovan Olugbode receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Naeshaun Montgomery receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamal Roberts rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Anthony Evans III receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Marquis Johnson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cayden Lee receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sanfrisco Magee receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Evans III 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Austin Simmons pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kamario Taylor pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Fluff Bothwell rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sanfrisco Magee 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Xai'Shaun Edwards rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Donovan Olugbode 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cayden Lee 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Cayden Lee 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Donovan Olugbode 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Sanfrisco Magee 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Xai'Shaun Edwards rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kamario Taylor pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Fluff Bothwell rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Sanfrisco Magee receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Evans III 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Austin Simmons pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Anthony Evans III receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Marquis Johnson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cayden Lee receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamal Roberts rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kamario Taylor rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Donovan Olugbode receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Naeshaun Montgomery receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Missouri Tigers team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Mississippi State Bulldogs team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Mississippi State Bulldogs Team pass yds 309.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Mississippi State Bulldogs Team rush yds 189.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Missouri Tigers Team pass yds 294.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Missouri Tigers Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.