Montana Grizzlies at Oregon State Beavers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 3:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Montana Grizzlies 91%
Oregon State Beavers 9%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
32.3 vs 37.4
+4.0%p
Head to head Montana Grizzlies Oregon State Beavers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Lekeldrick Bridges receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Eric Olsen receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cornell Hatcher Jr. rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Montana Grizzlies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/53 Miss
91% Both total runs 69.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 69.5 Under· Totals Under Oregon State Beavers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 32.3 vs 37.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 52/18 Hit
9% Winning margin8 Oregon State Beavers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Oregon State Beavers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 5.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
64% Oregon State Beavers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Montana Grizzlies wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Oregon State Beavers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Montana Grizzlies wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Montana Grizzlies wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Montana Grizzlies wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Lekeldrick Bridges receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Eric Olsen receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cornell Hatcher Jr. rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Landon Ransom-Goelz receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jesse Legree receiving yds 104.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brooks Davis receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under AJ Newberry rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aeryn Hampton receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Eli Gillman rush yds 109.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aeryn Hampton 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dylan Paine rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Braden Atkinson pass yds 304.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jesse Legree 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Keali'i Ah Yat pass yds 219.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Landon Ransom-Goelz 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Brooks Davis 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Brooks Davis 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Landon Ransom-Goelz 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Braden Atkinson pass yds 304.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jesse Legree 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Keali'i Ah Yat pass yds 219.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Aeryn Hampton 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Dylan Paine rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Eli Gillman rush yds 109.5 Over· Rush Yds Over AJ Newberry rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Aeryn Hampton receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jesse Legree receiving yds 104.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brooks Davis receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cornell Hatcher Jr. rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Landon Ransom-Goelz receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Eric Olsen receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lekeldrick Bridges receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Montana Grizzlies team runs 37.5 Over· Team Points Oregon State Beavers team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Montana Grizzlies Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Oregon State Beavers Team pass yds 409.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Oregon State Beavers Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Montana Grizzlies Team rush yds 214.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.