Murray State Racers at Oklahoma State Cowboys — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Murray State Racers 5%
Oklahoma State Cowboys 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 37.3 vs 12.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
37.3 vs 12.2
+4.0%p
Head to head Murray State Racers Oklahoma State Cowboys
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Trey Firestone 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaxon Potter 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Miles Coleman receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Oklahoma State Cowboys Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 37.3 vs 12.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 59/1 Hit
95% Both total runs 49.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 49.5 Under· Totals Under Murray State Racers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 0/60 Miss
5% Winning margin8 Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 37.3 vs 12.2 → expected margin 25.1 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
93% Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 37.3 vs 12.2 → expected margin 25.1 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
89% Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Murray State Racers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Murray State Racers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Murray State Racers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Murray State Racers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Trey Firestone 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaxon Potter 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Trey Firestone receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Miles Coleman receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tyrell Campbell rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dimitri Howard receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Justin Bowick receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mykel Allen rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaxon Potter receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caleb Hawkins rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chris Barnes receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jim Ogle pass yds 109.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Drew Mestemaker pass yds 259.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ayo Adeyi rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Miles Coleman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Bowick 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Bowick 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Miles Coleman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Drew Mestemaker pass yds 259.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ayo Adeyi rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Caleb Hawkins rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Barnes receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jim Ogle pass yds 109.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Justin Bowick receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mykel Allen rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaxon Potter receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Miles Coleman receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyrell Campbell rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dimitri Howard receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trey Firestone receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trey Firestone 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaxon Potter 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Oklahoma State Cowboys team runs 37.5 Over· Team Points Murray State Racers team runs 12.5 Over· Team Points Oklahoma State Cowboys Team pass yds 334.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Murray State Racers Team pass yds 134.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Murray State Racers Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Oklahoma State Cowboys Team rush yds 249.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.