Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Navy Midshipmen 10%
Air Force Falcons 89%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 34.0 vs 30.7 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
34.0 vs 30.7
+3.3%p
Head to head Navy Midshipmen Air Force Falcons
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jordan Collins 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Simon Kibbee 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Matt Long 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Air Force Falcons Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 34.0 vs 30.7 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
89% Both total runs 64.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 64.5 Under· Totals Under Navy Midshipmen Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
10% Winning margin8 Navy Midshipmen within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
77% Navy Midshipmen within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
68% Navy Midshipmen within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Navy Midshipmen within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Air Force Falcons wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Air Force Falcons wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Air Force Falcons wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Air Force Falcons wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Jordan Collins 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Simon Kibbee 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Matt Long 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Truman Brasfield receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Barrow 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Adam Hrynciw receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Barrow rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kemper Hodges rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Simon Kibbee receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Matt Long receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Barrow receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Gutierrez pass yds 119.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jordan Collins receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Gutierrez rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Evan Medders pass yds 124.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rocco Conti rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Evan Medders pass yds 124.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Rocco Conti rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jackson Gutierrez rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jackson Gutierrez pass yds 119.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jordan Collins receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kemper Hodges rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Simon Kibbee receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Matt Long receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Michael Barrow receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Adam Hrynciw receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Michael Barrow rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Michael Barrow 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Truman Brasfield receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Simon Kibbee 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Matt Long 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jordan Collins 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Navy Midshipmen team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Air Force Falcons team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points Navy Midshipmen Team pass yds 79.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Navy Midshipmen Team rush yds 369.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Air Force Falcons Team pass yds 109.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Air Force Falcons Team rush yds 294.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.