Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 25 (Fri) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Navy Midshipmen 55%
UAB Blazers 45%
Locked before start
UAB Blazers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 58% Navy Midshipmen wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 70% Michael Barrow receiving yds 22.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 59% Showing 3 of 22 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 1-2 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1400 vs 1506
+4.3%p Points per game
21.8 vs 30.7
+4.0%p
Head to head Navy Midshipmen UAB Blazers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 196yds (per game 49.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 43.2· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 48.4 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Truman Brasfield receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Collins receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Navy Midshipmen wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 30.7 vs 21.8 → expected margin 8.9 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
70% Navy Midshipmen wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UAB Blazers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Navy Midshipmen wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UAB Blazers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Navy Midshipmen wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ UAB Blazers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UAB Blazers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 TM Ty Mims receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 196yds (per game 49.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 43.2· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 48.4 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Truman Brasfield receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Collins receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bam McReynolds rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CJ Smith receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under EJ Reid receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Barrow receiving yds 22.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Barrow rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jackson Gutierrez rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ryder Burton pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rod Robinson II rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jackson Gutierrez pass yds 104.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Michael Barrow 리셉션 1.5 Over· Receptions Over Ty Mims 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under EJ Reid 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jordan Collins 리셉션 1.5 Over· Receptions Over EJ Reid 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Collins 리셉션 1.5 Under· Receptions Under Ty Mims 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jackson Gutierrez pass yds 104.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Michael Barrow 리셉션 1.5 Under· Receptions Under Rod Robinson II rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ryder Burton pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jackson Gutierrez rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Michael Barrow rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Michael Barrow receiving yds 22.5 Over· Rec Yds Over CJ Smith receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over EJ Reid receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bam McReynolds rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jordan Collins receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Mims receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Truman Brasfield receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Navy Midshipmen Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/25 Miss
55% Both total runs 52.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 52.5 Under· Totals Under UAB Blazers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1400 vs 1506 (50% blend)· Points per game 21.8 vs 30.7 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/21 Hit
45% Team stats6 Navy Midshipmen team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points UAB Blazers team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points UAB Blazers Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Navy Midshipmen Team pass yds 79.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UAB Blazers Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Navy Midshipmen Team rush yds 374.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.