NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate NC State Wolfpack 8%
Vanderbilt Commodores 92%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1731 vs 1514 (50% blend)· Points per game 28.3 vs 38.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1731 vs 1514
+19.4%p Points per game
28.3 vs 38.3
-4.0%p
Head to head NC State Wolfpack Vanderbilt Commodores
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 64%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 11x (per game 2.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.3· opponent defense matchup ×0.93 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
TE sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Junior Sherrill receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Davion Gause receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Vanderbilt Commodores Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1731 vs 1514 (50% blend)· Points per game 28.3 vs 38.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/32 Hit
92% Both total runs 66.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 66.5 Under· Totals Under NC State Wolfpack Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/36 Miss
8% Winning margin8 NC State Wolfpack wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 38.3 vs 28.3 → expected margin 10.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
66% Vanderbilt Commodores within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 NC State Wolfpack wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Vanderbilt Commodores within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 NC State Wolfpack wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Vanderbilt Commodores within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 NC State Wolfpack wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Vanderbilt Commodores within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 JC Jayvontay Conner 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 11x (per game 2.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.3· opponent defense matchup ×0.93 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
64% Junior Sherrill receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Davion Gause receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Preston Douglas receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Preston Douglas 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Sedrick Alexander rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayvontay Conner receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jared Curtis rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tristen Brown receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Junior Sherrill 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jayden Scott rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keenan Jackson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jared Curtis pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Davion Gause rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CJ Bailey pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Keenan Jackson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Keenan Jackson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under CJ Bailey pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jared Curtis pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Davion Gause rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Keenan Jackson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jared Curtis rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tristen Brown receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Junior Sherrill 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jayden Scott rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Sedrick Alexander rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayvontay Conner receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Preston Douglas receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Preston Douglas 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Davion Gause receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Junior Sherrill receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jayvontay Conner 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Vanderbilt Commodores team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points NC State Wolfpack team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Vanderbilt Commodores Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds NC State Wolfpack Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds NC State Wolfpack Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Vanderbilt Commodores Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.