Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 9:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Nebraska Cornhuskers 90%
Michigan State Spartans 10%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1510 vs 1732
+13.2%p Points per game
22.0 vs 42.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacory Barney Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Nebraska Cornhuskers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/14 Hit
90% Both total runs 64.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 64.5 Under· Totals Under Michigan State Spartans Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1510 vs 1732 (50% blend)· Points per game 22.0 vs 42.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/32 Miss
10% Winning margin8 Nebraska Cornhuskers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 42.5 vs 22.0 → expected margin 20.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
86% Nebraska Cornhuskers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 42.5 vs 22.0 → expected margin 20.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
80% Nebraska Cornhuskers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Nebraska Cornhuskers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Michigan State Spartans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Michigan State Spartans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Michigan State Spartans within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Michigan State Spartans within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacory Barney Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Nelson rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rodney Bullard Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rodney Bullard Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kwazi Gilmer receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mekhi Nelson receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cam Edwards rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaziun Patterson rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jamal Rule rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jacory Barney Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Alessio Milivojevic pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Anthony Colandrea pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kwazi Gilmer 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kwazi Gilmer 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Anthony Colandrea pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Alessio Milivojevic pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaziun Patterson rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jamal Rule rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jacory Barney Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cam Edwards rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chrishon McCray 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Mekhi Nelson receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rodney Bullard Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kwazi Gilmer receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rodney Bullard Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Mekhi Nelson rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jacory Barney Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Nebraska Cornhuskers team runs 42.5 Over· Team Points Michigan State Spartans team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Michigan State Spartans Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Nebraska Cornhuskers Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Nebraska Cornhuskers Team rush yds 254.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Michigan State Spartans Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.