Nevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Nevada Wolf Pack 39%
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 61%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1290 vs 1435 (50% blend)· Points per game 26.0 vs 27.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1290 vs 1435
-7.5%p
Head to head Nevada Wolf Pack Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Terrence Brown rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cam'ron Lacy receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Markus Allen receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 1.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
81% Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 1.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Nevada Wolf Pack wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Nevada Wolf Pack wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Nevada Wolf Pack wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Nevada Wolf Pack wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Terrence Brown rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cam'ron Lacy receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Markus Allen receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gary Givens III receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Donnie Cheers receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Neo Clifton receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Damien Morgan receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gary Givens III 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Dominic Kelley rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Roman Gagliano pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Antonio Martin rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Herschel Turner rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Markus Allen 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Carter Jones pass yds 144.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cam'ron Lacy 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Damien Morgan 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Damien Morgan 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Cam'ron Lacy 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Markus Allen 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Carter Jones pass yds 144.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Roman Gagliano pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Antonio Martin rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Herschel Turner rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dominic Kelley rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Gary Givens III 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Neo Clifton receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Damien Morgan receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Markus Allen receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Gary Givens III receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Donnie Cheers receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terrence Brown rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cam'ron Lacy receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1290 vs 1435 (50% blend)· Points per game 26.0 vs 27.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 27/21 Hit
61% Both total runs 53.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 53.5 Under· Totals Under Nevada Wolf Pack Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/28 Miss
39% Team stats6 Nevada Wolf Pack team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Nevada Wolf Pack Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Nevada Wolf Pack Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.