New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New Mexico Lobos 90%
New Mexico State Aggies 10%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1278 vs 1589
+18.6%p Points per game
26.3 vs 39.0
+4.0%p
Head to head New Mexico Lobos New Mexico State Aggies
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 65%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
TE sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Troy Omeire receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bailen George 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 New Mexico Lobos Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 42/19 Hit
90% Both total runs 65.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 65.5 Under· Totals Under New Mexico State Aggies Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1278 vs 1589 (50% blend)· Points per game 26.3 vs 39.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 18/43 Miss
10% Winning margin8 New Mexico Lobos wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 39.0 vs 26.3 → expected margin 12.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
72% New Mexico Lobos wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ New Mexico Lobos wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ New Mexico State Aggies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 New Mexico Lobos wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ New Mexico State Aggies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 New Mexico State Aggies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 New Mexico State Aggies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 JT Josiah Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 12x (per game 3.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.0 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
65% Troy Omeire receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bailen George 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under TK King receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cade Keith receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josiah Thomas receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cade Keith 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Scottre Humphrey rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brodie Malone-Bradford receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Washington Jr. rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bailen George receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under James Jones rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Toa Fa'avae pass yds 144.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kiefer Sibley rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Trey Hedden pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under TK King 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under TK King 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Trey Hedden pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over James Jones rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Toa Fa'avae pass yds 144.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kiefer Sibley rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over TJ Washington Jr. rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bailen George receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brodie Malone-Bradford receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Scottre Humphrey rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josiah Thomas receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cade Keith 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over TK King receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cade Keith receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Troy Omeire receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bailen George 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Josiah Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 New Mexico State Aggies team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points New Mexico Lobos team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points New Mexico State Aggies Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New Mexico State Aggies Team rush yds 119.5 Over· Team Rush Yds New Mexico Lobos Team pass yds 159.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New Mexico Lobos Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.