New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma Sooners — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New Mexico Lobos 35%
Oklahoma Sooners 65%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1731 vs 1589 (50% blend)· Points per game 22.0 vs 39.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1731 vs 1589
+15.2%p Points per game
22.0 vs 39.0
-4.0%p
Head to head New Mexico Lobos Oklahoma Sooners
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Bailen George receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Troy Omeire receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under John Mateer rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 New Mexico Lobos wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 39.0 vs 22.0 → expected margin 17.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
81% New Mexico Lobos wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 39.0 vs 22.0 → expected margin 17.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
73% New Mexico Lobos wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ New Mexico Lobos wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Oklahoma Sooners within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Oklahoma Sooners within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Oklahoma Sooners within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Oklahoma Sooners within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Oklahoma Sooners Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1731 vs 1589 (50% blend)· Points per game 22.0 vs 39.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/7 Hit
65% Both total runs 61.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 61.5 Over· Totals Over New Mexico Lobos Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 6/15 Miss
35% player stat32 Bailen George receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Troy Omeire receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under John Mateer rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Sategna III receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cade Keith receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trell Harris receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kiefer Sibley rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rocky Beers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Scottre Humphrey rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Lloyd Avant rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under John Mateer pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Toa Fa'avae pass yds 124.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Bailen George 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Sategna III 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Rocky Beers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Cade Keith 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Cade Keith 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Sategna III 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rocky Beers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Bailen George 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Toa Fa'avae pass yds 124.5 Over· Pass Yds Over John Mateer pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Lloyd Avant rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rocky Beers receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Scottre Humphrey rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trell Harris receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kiefer Sibley rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cade Keith receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over John Mateer rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Isaiah Sategna III receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bailen George receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Troy Omeire receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Oklahoma Sooners team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points New Mexico Lobos team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points Oklahoma Sooners Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Oklahoma Sooners Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New Mexico Lobos Team pass yds 139.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New Mexico Lobos Team rush yds 204.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.