New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 8 (Thu) · 12:04 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast New Mexico State Aggies 38%
Florida International Panthers 62%
Locked before start
Florida International Panthers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 62% Hit New Mexico State Aggies wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 68% Josiah Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 64% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-2 vs 2-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1426 vs 1248 (50% blend)· Points per game 18.0 vs 27.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1426 vs 1248
+17.4%p Points per game
18.0 vs 27.8
-4.0%p
Head to head New Mexico State Aggies Florida International Panthers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 64%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning season 5games 16x (per game 3.2)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
TE sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Jojo Stone receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brodie Malone-Bradford receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 New Mexico State Aggies wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 27.8 vs 18.0 → expected margin 9.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
68% Florida International Panthers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 New Mexico State Aggies wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Florida International Panthers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 New Mexico State Aggies wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Florida International Panthers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 New Mexico State Aggies wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Florida International Panthers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 JT Josiah Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 5games 16x (per game 3.2)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
64% Jojo Stone receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josiah Thomas receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brodie Malone-Bradford receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Devonte Lyons rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tyson Carter receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TK King receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Maguire Anderson receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under James Jones rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Anthony Carrie rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under TJ Washington Jr. rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Maguire Anderson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under TK King 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Trey Hedden pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under JJ Kohl pass yds 259.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jojo Stone 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jojo Stone 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under JJ Kohl pass yds 259.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Trey Hedden pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Maguire Anderson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over TK King 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Washington Jr. rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Anthony Carrie rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Maguire Anderson receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over James Jones rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Devonte Lyons rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tyson Carter receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TK King receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jojo Stone receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josiah Thomas receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brodie Malone-Bradford receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josiah Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over games4 Florida International Panthers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-2 vs 2-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1426 vs 1248 (50% blend)· Points per game 18.0 vs 27.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
runs 22/4 Hit
62% Both total runs 45.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 45.5 Under· Totals Under New Mexico State Aggies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-4 vs 3-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
runs 3/23 Miss
38% Team stats6 New Mexico State Aggies team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Florida International Panthers Team pass yds 319.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New Mexico State Aggies Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New Mexico State Aggies Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Florida International Panthers Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Florida International Panthers team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.