Nicholls Colonels at Sam Houston Bearkats — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Nicholls Colonels 61%
Sam Houston Bearkats 39%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
27.8 vs 19.2
-4.0%p
Head to head Nicholls Colonels Sam Houston Bearkats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under 66%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 5games 6x (per game 1.2)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 2.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 2.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Grady O'Neill receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Reed receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Nicholls Colonels within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% Sam Houston Bearkats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Nicholls Colonels within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Sam Houston Bearkats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Nicholls Colonels within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Sam Houston Bearkats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Nicholls Colonels within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Sam Houston Bearkats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat30 TH Tamaj Hoffman 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 5games 6x (per game 1.2)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 2.4· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 2.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
66% Grady O'Neill receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tamaj Hoffman rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tamaj Hoffman receiving yds 22.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Reed receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Dufrene receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tim Burns Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grady O'Neill 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Landan Brown rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Shane Lee rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Greg Donaldson receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Greg Donaldson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Landyn Locke pass yds 264.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Alton McCaskill rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chris Reed 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chris Reed 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Alton McCaskill rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Landyn Locke pass yds 264.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Landan Brown rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Shane Lee rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Greg Donaldson receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Greg Donaldson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Tim Burns Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Grady O'Neill 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Chris Reed receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jackson Dufrene receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Grady O'Neill receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tamaj Hoffman rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tamaj Hoffman receiving yds 22.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tamaj Hoffman 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over games4 Nicholls Colonels Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 0/60 Miss
61% Both total runs 47.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 47.5 Over· Totals Over Sam Houston Bearkats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 27.8 vs 19.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 59/1 Hit
39% Team stats6 Sam Houston Bearkats team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Nicholls Colonels team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Sam Houston Bearkats Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Sam Houston Bearkats Team pass yds 339.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Nicholls Colonels Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Nicholls Colonels Team pass yds 149.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.