North Carolina Central Eagles at East Carolina Pirates — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate North Carolina Central Eagles 31%
East Carolina Pirates 69%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1462 vs 1396 (50% blend)· Points per game 24.0 vs 23.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1462 vs 1396
+9.9%p
Head to head North Carolina Central Eagles East Carolina Pirates
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Nasim Cosby receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chance Peterson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under RJ Lancaster receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 North Carolina Central Eagles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 0.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
84% North Carolina Central Eagles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 0.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
76% North Carolina Central Eagles within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 North Carolina Central Eagles within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 East Carolina Pirates wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ East Carolina Pirates wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ East Carolina Pirates wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ East Carolina Pirates wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 East Carolina Pirates Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1462 vs 1396 (50% blend)· Points per game 24.0 vs 23.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 42/10 Hit
69% Both total runs 47.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 47.5 Over· Totals Over North Carolina Central Eagles Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 9/43 Miss
31% player stat32 Nasim Cosby receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chance Peterson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under RJ Lancaster receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Melvin receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zion Dobson rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chance Peterson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Engleman Jr. rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ray Ray Joseph Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dillon Lorick receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashton Gray rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Plez Lawrence rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mitch Griffis pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Nelson Layne pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under RJ Lancaster 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jeremiah Melvin 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ray Ray Joseph Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Ray Ray Joseph Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Melvin 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Mitch Griffis pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nelson Layne pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over RJ Lancaster 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Ashton Gray rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Plez Lawrence rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ray Ray Joseph Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dillon Lorick receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TJ Engleman Jr. rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jeremiah Melvin receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Zion Dobson rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chance Peterson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over RJ Lancaster receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nasim Cosby receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chance Peterson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 North Carolina Central Eagles team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points East Carolina Pirates team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points North Carolina Central Eagles Team pass yds 134.5 Over· Team Pass Yds East Carolina Pirates Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds North Carolina Central Eagles Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds East Carolina Pirates Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.