North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate North Carolina Tar Heels 32%
Clemson Tigers 67%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1572 vs 1396 (50% blend)· Points per game 21.0 vs 23.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1572 vs 1396
+17.2%p Points per game
21.0 vs 23.3
-2.3%p
Head to head North Carolina Tar Heels Clemson Tigers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Tyler Brown receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Benjamin Hall rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jelani Thurman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Clemson Tigers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 2.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
82% Clemson Tigers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 2.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Clemson Tigers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Clemson Tigers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 North Carolina Tar Heels wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ North Carolina Tar Heels wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ North Carolina Tar Heels wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ North Carolina Tar Heels wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Clemson Tigers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1572 vs 1396 (50% blend)· Points per game 21.0 vs 23.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 28/21 Hit
67% Both total runs 44.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 44.5 Over· Totals Over North Carolina Tar Heels Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/29 Miss
32% player stat32 Tyler Brown receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Benjamin Hall rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jelani Thurman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under C.J. Sadler receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gideon Davidson rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under T.J. Moore receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Olsen Patt-Henry receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tait Reynolds rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jordan Shipp receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Billy Edwards Jr. pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Demon June rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tait Reynolds pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under T.J. Moore 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jelani Thurman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Tyler Brown 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jordan Shipp 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Tyler Brown 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Shipp 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jelani Thurman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over T.J. Moore 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Tait Reynolds pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Billy Edwards Jr. pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Demon June rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tait Reynolds rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jordan Shipp receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Olsen Patt-Henry receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over T.J. Moore receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Gideon Davidson rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Benjamin Hall rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jelani Thurman receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over C.J. Sadler receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyler Brown receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 North Carolina Tar Heels team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Clemson Tigers team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Clemson Tigers Team pass yds 134.5 Over· Team Pass Yds North Carolina Tar Heels Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Clemson Tigers Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds North Carolina Tar Heels Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.