North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State Hornets — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 2:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate North Dakota State Bison 97%
Sacramento State Hornets 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1185 vs 1594
+22.9%p Points per game
17.6 vs 35.0
+4.0%p
Head to head North Dakota State Bison Sacramento State Hornets
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Matt Coleman receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Raiden Brown receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Collins receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 North Dakota State Bison Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/11 Hit
97% Both total runs 52.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 52.5 Under· Totals Under Sacramento State Hornets Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1185 vs 1594 (50% blend)· Points per game 17.6 vs 35.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/32 Miss
3% Winning margin8 North Dakota State Bison wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 35.0 vs 17.6 → expected margin 17.4 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
83% North Dakota State Bison wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 35.0 vs 17.6 → expected margin 17.4 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
75% North Dakota State Bison wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ North Dakota State Bison wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Sacramento State Hornets within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Sacramento State Hornets within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Sacramento State Hornets within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Sacramento State Hornets within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Matt Coleman receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Raiden Brown receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Matt Coleman 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Mekhi Collins receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Daniel Swinney rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Ene rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Myles Mitchell rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Onterrio Smith Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan McCants receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DJ Scott rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nathan Hayes pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Reis Kessel receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Collins 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jackson Sharman pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Onterrio Smith Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Reis Kessel 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Reis Kessel 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jackson Sharman pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Onterrio Smith Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Nathan Hayes pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Reis Kessel receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mekhi Collins 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Scott rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Onterrio Smith Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan McCants receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Ene rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Myles Mitchell rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Daniel Swinney rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Matt Coleman 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Mekhi Collins receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Matt Coleman receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Raiden Brown receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Sacramento State Hornets team runs 17.5 Over· Team Points North Dakota State Bison team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points North Dakota State Bison Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Sacramento State Hornets Team pass yds 189.5 Over· Team Pass Yds North Dakota State Bison Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Sacramento State Hornets Team rush yds 99.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.