North Texas Mean Green at Texas State Bobcats — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate North Texas Mean Green 58%
Texas State Bobcats 42%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 1-2 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1475 vs 1634
+8.6%p Points per game
36.3 vs 39.5
+3.2%p
Head to head North Texas Mean Green Texas State Bobcats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Kylen Evans 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Stevenson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Corri Milliner receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Texas State Bobcats within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
77% Texas State Bobcats within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
68% Texas State Bobcats within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Texas State Bobcats within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 North Texas Mean Green wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ North Texas Mean Green wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ North Texas Mean Green wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ North Texas Mean Green wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Kylen Evans 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Stevenson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Corri Milliner receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Dawn Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Chris Dawn Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zechariah Sample receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Torrance Burgess Jr. rush yds 104.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jahiem White rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Davian Jackson rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kylen Evans receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josiah Martin receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tayven Jackson pass yds 269.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brad Jackson pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brendon Haygood rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jahiem White 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jahiem White 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Stevenson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Justin Stevenson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Brad Jackson pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Brendon Haygood rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tayven Jackson pass yds 269.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Josiah Martin receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Davian Jackson rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kylen Evans receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Torrance Burgess Jr. rush yds 104.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jahiem White rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Dawn Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Zechariah Sample receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Dawn Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Justin Stevenson receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Corri Milliner receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kylen Evans 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over games4 North Texas Mean Green Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/50 Miss
58% Both total runs 75.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 75.5 Under· Totals Under Texas State Bobcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1475 vs 1634 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 39.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 49/36 Hit
42% Team stats6 North Texas Mean Green team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points Texas State Bobcats team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Texas State Bobcats Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds North Texas Mean Green Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Texas State Bobcats Team rush yds 314.5 Over· Team Rush Yds North Texas Mean Green Team pass yds 384.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.