North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 2 (Fri) · 1:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast North Texas Mean Green 43%
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 57%
Locked before start
North Texas Mean Green wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 46% North Texas Mean Green Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 43% Hit Javon Ross receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 60% Showing 3 of 28 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-2 vs 3-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1233 vs 1634 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.8 vs 40.6 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1233 vs 1634
-22.6%p Points per game
27.8 vs 40.6
-4.0%p
Head to head North Texas Mean Green Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Max Reese receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jimmy Calloway receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Justin Stevenson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Tulsa Golden Hurricane within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 12.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Tulsa Golden Hurricane within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 12.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
71% Tulsa Golden Hurricane within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Tulsa Golden Hurricane within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 North Texas Mean Green wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ North Texas Mean Green wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ North Texas Mean Green wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ North Texas Mean Green wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Max Reese receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jimmy Calloway receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Justin Stevenson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Justin Stevenson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Damari Alston rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Corri Milliner receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javon Ross receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Oran Singleton Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jahiem White rush yds 99.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Trequan Jones rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tayven Jackson pass yds 284.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brendon Haygood rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Oran Singleton Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Baylor Hayes pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jahiem White 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Javon Ross 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Javon Ross 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jahiem White 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Baylor Hayes pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Oran Singleton Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Brendon Haygood rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tayven Jackson pass yds 284.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Trequan Jones rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Oran Singleton Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jahiem White rush yds 99.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javon Ross receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Corri Milliner receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Damari Alston rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Justin Stevenson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Justin Stevenson receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jimmy Calloway receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Max Reese receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Tulsa Golden Hurricane Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-2 vs 3-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1233 vs 1634 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.8 vs 40.6 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 44/46 Miss
57% Both total runs 68.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 68.5 Under· Totals Under North Texas Mean Green Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-2 vs 3-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 45/45 Hit
43% Team stats6 Tulsa Golden Hurricane team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points North Texas Mean Green team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points North Texas Mean Green Team pass yds 379.5 Over· Team Pass Yds North Texas Mean Green Team rush yds 204.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Tulsa Golden Hurricane Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tulsa Golden Hurricane Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.