Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State Panthers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 6:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Northern Illinois Huskies 3%
Georgia State Panthers 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 0-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 38.8 vs 13.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
38.8 vs 13.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Northern Illinois Huskies Georgia State Panthers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
DeAree Rogers receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cam Thompson receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodshaun Dorsey receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Georgia State Panthers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 0-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 38.8 vs 13.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/15 Hit
97% Both total runs 52.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 52.5 Under· Totals Under Northern Illinois Huskies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-4 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/36 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Georgia State Panthers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 38.8 vs 13.8 → expected margin 25.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
93% Georgia State Panthers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 38.8 vs 13.8 → expected margin 25.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
88% Georgia State Panthers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Georgia State Panthers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Northern Illinois Huskies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Northern Illinois Huskies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Northern Illinois Huskies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Northern Illinois Huskies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 DeAree Rogers receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cam Thompson receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodshaun Dorsey receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodshaun Dorsey 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Grant Hollier receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Telly Johnson Jr. rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Elijah Porter rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under La'Don Bryant receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under La'Don Bryant 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Cameran Brown rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under DeAree Rogers 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under DJ Riles receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lanear McCrary Jr. rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cameran Brown pass yds 209.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Taron Dickens pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under DJ Riles 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Riles 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Cameran Brown pass yds 209.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Taron Dickens pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Lanear McCrary Jr. rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over DJ Riles receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cameran Brown rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over DeAree Rogers 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Grant Hollier receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Telly Johnson Jr. rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Elijah Porter rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over La'Don Bryant receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over La'Don Bryant 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Rodshaun Dorsey 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Rodshaun Dorsey receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cam Thompson receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DeAree Rogers receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Northern Illinois Huskies team runs 13.5 Over· Team Points Georgia State Panthers team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Northern Illinois Huskies Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia State Panthers Team pass yds 264.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia State Panthers Team rush yds 239.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Northern Illinois Huskies Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.