Northern Iowa Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Northern Iowa Panthers 3%
Iowa Hawkeyes 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 32.8 vs 27.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
32.8 vs 27.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Northern Iowa Panthers Iowa Hawkeyes
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Braeden Jackson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Christian Collins rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tony Diaz receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Iowa Hawkeyes Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 32.8 vs 27.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 55/1 Hit
97% Both total runs 59.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 59.5 Under· Totals Under Northern Iowa Panthers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 0/56 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Northern Iowa Panthers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
71% Northern Iowa Panthers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 5.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
62% Iowa Hawkeyes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Northern Iowa Panthers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Iowa Hawkeyes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Northern Iowa Panthers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Iowa Hawkeyes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Iowa Hawkeyes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Braeden Jackson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Christian Collins rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tony Diaz receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Reece Vander Zee receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Addison Ostrenga receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaiden Ellis-Lahey receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kamari Moulton rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brady McCullough receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Taj Hughes receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ben Gordon rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Hank Brown pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaxon Dailey pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brady McCullough 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Tony Diaz 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Reece Vander Zee 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Taj Hughes 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Tony Diaz 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Reece Vander Zee 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Taj Hughes 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Brady McCullough 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaxon Dailey pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Hank Brown pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ben Gordon rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Taj Hughes receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kamari Moulton rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brady McCullough receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tony Diaz receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Reece Vander Zee receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Addison Ostrenga receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaiden Ellis-Lahey receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Braeden Jackson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Christian Collins rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Team stats6 Iowa Hawkeyes team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Northern Iowa Panthers team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Northern Iowa Panthers Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Iowa Hawkeyes Team pass yds 239.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Iowa Hawkeyes Team rush yds 239.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Northern Iowa Panthers Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.