Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Northwestern Wildcats 18%
Indiana Hoosiers 82%
Locked before start
Indiana Hoosiers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 82% Hit Indiana Hoosiers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 85% Turbo Richard rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 61% Showing 3 of 20 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2106 vs 1640 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.5 vs 32.7 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
2106 vs 1640
+27.0%p Points per game
43.5 vs 32.7
+4.0%p
Head to head Northwestern Wildcats Indiana Hoosiers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Alex Honig receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Charlie Becker receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caleb Komolafe receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Indiana Hoosiers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.5 vs 32.7 → expected margin 10.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
85% Indiana Hoosiers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 43.5 vs 32.7 → expected margin 10.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
78% Indiana Hoosiers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Indiana Hoosiers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Northwestern Wildcats within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Northwestern Wildcats within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Northwestern Wildcats within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Northwestern Wildcats within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Indiana Hoosiers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2106 vs 1640 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.5 vs 32.7 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 29/24 Hit
82% Both total runs 76.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 76.5 Over· Totals Over Northwestern Wildcats Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 23/30 Miss
18% player stat32 Alex Honig receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Charlie Becker receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caleb Komolafe receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Turbo Richard rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caleb Komolafe rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luke Dehnicke receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lee Beebe Jr. rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Shazz Preston receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nick Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Joseph Himon II rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nick Marsh 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Hoover pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Aidan Chiles pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Luke Dehnicke 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Charlie Becker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Caleb Komolafe 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Caleb Komolafe 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Charlie Becker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Hoover pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Aidan Chiles pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Luke Dehnicke 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Nick Marsh 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Joseph Himon II rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nick Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lee Beebe Jr. rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Shazz Preston receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caleb Komolafe rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Luke Dehnicke receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Turbo Richard rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Charlie Becker receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caleb Komolafe receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Alex Honig receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Northwestern Wildcats team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Indiana Hoosiers team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Indiana Hoosiers Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Northwestern Wildcats Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Indiana Hoosiers Team rush yds 259.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Northwestern Wildcats Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.