Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Notre Dame Fighting Irish 97%
North Carolina Tar Heels 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
23.3 vs 42.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Notre Dame Fighting Irish North Carolina Tar Heels
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jordan Shipp receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under C.J. Sadler receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
97% Both total runs 65.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 65.5 Under· Totals Under North Carolina Tar Heels Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 23.3 vs 42.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
3% Winning margin8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 42.3 vs 23.3 → expected margin 19.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
84% Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 42.3 vs 23.3 → expected margin 19.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
77% Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ North Carolina Tar Heels within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 North Carolina Tar Heels within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 North Carolina Tar Heels within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 North Carolina Tar Heels within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Jordan Shipp receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under C.J. Sadler receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Benjamin Hall rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jelani Thurman receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nolan James Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jelani Thurman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Micah Gilbert receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Faison receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Micah Gilbert 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under CJ Carr rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Billy Edwards Jr. pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Demon June rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jordan Shipp 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under CJ Carr pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jordan Faison 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Shipp 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over CJ Carr pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jordan Faison 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Billy Edwards Jr. pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Demon June rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CJ Carr rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jelani Thurman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Micah Gilbert receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Faison receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Micah Gilbert 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Benjamin Hall rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jelani Thurman receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nolan James Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over C.J. Sadler receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Shipp receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 North Carolina Tar Heels team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Notre Dame Fighting Irish team runs 42.5 Over· Team Points North Carolina Tar Heels Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team pass yds 239.5 Over· Team Pass Yds North Carolina Tar Heels Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.