Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 6:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Notre Dame Fighting Irish 97%
Purdue Boilermakers 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1288 vs 2084
+29.1%p Points per game
32.0 vs 42.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Notre Dame Fighting Irish Purdue Boilermakers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 239yds (per game 59.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 52.0· opponent defense matchup ×1.11 → expected 57.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) George Burhenn receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 49/11 Hit
97% Both total runs 74.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 74.5 Under· Totals Under Purdue Boilermakers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1288 vs 2084 (50% blend)· Points per game 32.0 vs 42.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/50 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 42.3 vs 32.0 → expected margin 10.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
67% Purdue Boilermakers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Purdue Boilermakers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Purdue Boilermakers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Purdue Boilermakers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 JF Jordan Faison receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 239yds (per game 59.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 52.0· opponent defense matchup ×1.11 → expected 57.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% George Burhenn receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chauncey Magwood receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Fame Ijeboi receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Micah Gilbert receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Fame Ijeboi rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Micah Gilbert 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryan Browne pass yds 209.5 Under· Pass Yds Under CJ Carr pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jerrick Gibson rush yds 27.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nolan James Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CJ Carr rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jordan Faison 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Chauncey Magwood 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Chauncey Magwood 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Fame Ijeboi 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Fame Ijeboi 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Faison 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jerrick Gibson rush yds 27.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nolan James Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CJ Carr rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ryan Browne pass yds 209.5 Over· Pass Yds Over CJ Carr pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Fame Ijeboi rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Micah Gilbert 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Chauncey Magwood receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Fame Ijeboi receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Micah Gilbert receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over George Burhenn receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Faison receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish team runs 42.5 Over· Team Points Purdue Boilermakers team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Purdue Boilermakers Team pass yds 279.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team pass yds 304.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Purdue Boilermakers Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.