Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Ohio Bobcats 25%
South Alabama Jaguars 75%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1346 vs 1318 (50% blend)· Points per game 31.3 vs 30.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1346 vs 1318
+6.9%p
Head to head Ohio Bobcats South Alabama Jaguars
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Preston Bowman receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Eager receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dom Dorwart receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Ohio Bobcats within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 1.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
81% Ohio Bobcats within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 1.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Ohio Bobcats within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Ohio Bobcats within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 South Alabama Jaguars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ South Alabama Jaguars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ South Alabama Jaguars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ South Alabama Jaguars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 South Alabama Jaguars Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1346 vs 1318 (50% blend)· Points per game 31.3 vs 30.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/37 Hit
75% Both total runs 61.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 61.5 Under· Totals Under Ohio Bobcats Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 36/42 Miss
25% player stat32 Preston Bowman receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Eager receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dom Dorwart receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keenan Phillips rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Riley Neer 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jeremiah Jones-Thomas receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Riley Neer receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Victor Rosa rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Matt Vezza rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jared Hollins pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under PJ Martin rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brendan Jenkins 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Matt Vezza pass yds 129.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Dom Dorwart 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Dom Dorwart 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Brendan Jenkins 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Matt Vezza pass yds 129.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jared Hollins pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over PJ Martin rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Matt Vezza rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Victor Rosa rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jeremiah Jones-Thomas receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Riley Neer receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keenan Phillips rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Riley Neer 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Anthony Eager receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dom Dorwart receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Preston Bowman receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 South Alabama Jaguars team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points Ohio Bobcats team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points South Alabama Jaguars Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Ohio Bobcats Team rush yds 209.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Ohio Bobcats Team pass yds 164.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Alabama Jaguars Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.