Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Ohio State Buckeyes 4%
Iowa Hawkeyes 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 32.8 vs 45.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
32.8 vs 45.0
-4.0%p
Head to head Ohio State Buckeyes Iowa Hawkeyes
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 13x (per game 3.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Addison Ostrenga receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brandon Inniss receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Iowa Hawkeyes Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 32.8 vs 45.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
95% Both total runs 77.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 77.5 Under· Totals Under Ohio State Buckeyes Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
4% Winning margin8 Ohio State Buckeyes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 45.0 vs 32.8 → expected margin 12.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
71% Ohio State Buckeyes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Iowa Hawkeyes within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Ohio State Buckeyes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Iowa Hawkeyes within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Ohio State Buckeyes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Iowa Hawkeyes within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Iowa Hawkeyes within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 DM Devin McCuin 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 13x (per game 3.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
63% Addison Ostrenga receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brandon Inniss receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Devin McCuin receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Reece Vander Zee receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bo Jackson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Smith receiving yds 84.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tony Diaz receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Hank Brown pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kamari Moulton rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Julian Sayin pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremiah Smith 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Ja'Kobi Jackson rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Braeden Jackson rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tony Diaz 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Reece Vander Zee 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Tony Diaz 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Reece Vander Zee 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Braeden Jackson rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ja'Kobi Jackson rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hank Brown pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kamari Moulton rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Julian Sayin pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jeremiah Smith 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Tony Diaz receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bo Jackson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jeremiah Smith receiving yds 84.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Reece Vander Zee receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Devin McCuin receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Addison Ostrenga receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brandon Inniss receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Devin McCuin 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Iowa Hawkeyes team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Ohio State Buckeyes team runs 45.5 Over· Team Points Ohio State Buckeyes Team pass yds 319.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Iowa Hawkeyes Team rush yds 209.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Iowa Hawkeyes Team pass yds 189.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Ohio State Buckeyes Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.