Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia Bulldogs — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Oklahoma Sooners 3%
Georgia Bulldogs 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2023 vs 1731 (50% blend)· Points per game 54.8 vs 22.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
2023 vs 1731
+22.6%p Points per game
54.8 vs 22.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Oklahoma Sooners Georgia Bulldogs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Rocky Beers receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chauncey Bowens receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Sategna III receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Georgia Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 54.8 vs 22.0 → expected margin 32.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
97% Georgia Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 54.8 vs 22.0 → expected margin 32.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
95% Georgia Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Georgia Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Oklahoma Sooners within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Oklahoma Sooners within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Oklahoma Sooners within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Oklahoma Sooners within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Georgia Bulldogs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2023 vs 1731 (50% blend)· Points per game 54.8 vs 22.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/14 Hit
97% Both total runs 76.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 76.5 Under· Totals Under Oklahoma Sooners Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/42 Miss
3% player stat32 Rocky Beers receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chauncey Bowens receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Sategna III receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremy Bell receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Craig Dandridge receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trell Harris receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nate Frazier rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chauncey Bowens 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Lloyd Avant rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ryan Puglisi pass yds 104.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Craig Dandridge 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under John Mateer pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under John Mateer rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dwight Phillips Jr. rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Sategna III 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Rocky Beers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Sategna III 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rocky Beers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Dwight Phillips Jr. rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Craig Dandridge 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over John Mateer pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over John Mateer rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ryan Puglisi pass yds 104.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nate Frazier rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chauncey Bowens 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Lloyd Avant rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trell Harris receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Craig Dandridge receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremy Bell receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chauncey Bowens receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Sategna III receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rocky Beers receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Georgia Bulldogs team runs 54.5 Over· Team Points Oklahoma Sooners team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Oklahoma Sooners Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Georgia Bulldogs Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Oklahoma Sooners Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia Bulldogs Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.