Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Oklahoma State Cowboys 42%
West Virginia Mountaineers 58%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1352 vs 1330 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 37.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1352 vs 1330
+6.4%p Points per game
36.3 vs 37.3
-1.0%p
Head to head Oklahoma State Cowboys West Virginia Mountaineers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Justin Bowick receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under John Neider receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Miles Coleman receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 West Virginia Mountaineers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 1.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
81% West Virginia Mountaineers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 1.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% West Virginia Mountaineers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 West Virginia Mountaineers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Oklahoma State Cowboys wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Justin Bowick receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under John Neider receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Miles Coleman receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Bray receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Hawkins Jr. rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under DJ Epps receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Barnes receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cam Cook rush yds 99.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caleb Hawkins rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ayo Adeyi rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Drew Mestemaker pass yds 284.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Michael Hawkins Jr. pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaden Bray 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Bowick 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Miles Coleman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Epps 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Epps 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Miles Coleman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Bowick 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Michael Hawkins Jr. pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaden Bray 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Drew Mestemaker pass yds 284.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ayo Adeyi rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Caleb Hawkins rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cam Cook rush yds 99.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Michael Hawkins Jr. rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over DJ Epps receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Barnes receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaden Bray receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over John Neider receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Miles Coleman receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Justin Bowick receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 West Virginia Mountaineers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1352 vs 1330 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 37.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/42 Miss
58% Both total runs 73.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 73.5 Under· Totals Under Oklahoma State Cowboys Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/25 Hit
42% Team stats6 West Virginia Mountaineers team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Oklahoma State Cowboys team runs 37.5 Over· Team Points West Virginia Mountaineers Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Oklahoma State Cowboys Team pass yds 364.5 Over· Team Pass Yds West Virginia Mountaineers Team rush yds 329.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Oklahoma State Cowboys Team rush yds 249.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.