Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Ole Miss Rebels 20%
Florida Gators 80%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1751 vs 1776 (50% blend)· Points per game 53.5 vs 35.5 (capped at ±4%p)· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 0)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
53.5 vs 35.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Ole Miss Rebels Florida Gators
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Vernell Brown III receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caleb Odom receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Abrams receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Florida Gators Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1751 vs 1776 (50% blend)· Points per game 53.5 vs 35.5 (capped at ±4%p)· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 0)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 52/29 Hit
80% Both total runs 86.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 86.5 Under· Totals Under Ole Miss Rebels Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 28/53 Miss
20% Winning margin8 Florida Gators wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 51.4 vs 35.5 → expected margin 15.9 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
79% Florida Gators wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 51.4 vs 35.5 → expected margin 15.9 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
71% Florida Gators wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Florida Gators wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Ole Miss Rebels within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Ole Miss Rebels within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Ole Miss Rebels within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Ole Miss Rebels within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Vernell Brown III receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caleb Odom receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Abrams receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luke Harpring receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Deuce Alexander receiving yds 84.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jadan Baugh rush yds 114.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kewan Lacy rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Traylon Ray receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Horatio Fields 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Duke Clark rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Trinidad Chambliss rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aaron Philo pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Trinidad Chambliss pass yds 274.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Luke Harpring 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Deuce Alexander 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Vernell Brown III 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Vernell Brown III 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Deuce Alexander 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Luke Harpring 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Trinidad Chambliss pass yds 274.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Aaron Philo pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Duke Clark rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trinidad Chambliss rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Traylon Ray receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Horatio Fields 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jadan Baugh rush yds 114.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kewan Lacy rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Luke Harpring receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Deuce Alexander receiving yds 84.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TJ Abrams receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Vernell Brown III receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caleb Odom receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Florida Gators team runs 51.5 Over· Team Points Ole Miss Rebels team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Ole Miss Rebels Team pass yds 359.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida Gators Team pass yds 259.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida Gators Team rush yds 289.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Ole Miss Rebels Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.