Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Oregon Ducks 46%
USC Trojans 53%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1784 vs 1844 (50% blend)· Points per game 39.8 vs 47.5 (capped at ±4%p)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
39.8 vs 47.5
-4.0%p
Head to head Oregon Ducks USC Trojans
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 62%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 5games 372yds (per game 74.4)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 61.0· opponent defense matchup ×1.04 → expected 63.5 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Mark Bowman receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trent Mosley receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 USC Trojans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
67% Oregon Ducks wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ USC Trojans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Oregon Ducks wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ USC Trojans within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Oregon Ducks wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ USC Trojans within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Oregon Ducks wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 KD Kayden Dixon-Wyatt receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 5games 372yds (per game 74.4)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 61.0· opponent defense matchup ×1.04 → expected 63.5 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
62% Mark Bowman receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trent Mosley receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dakorien Moore receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Evan Stewart receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mark Bowman 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordon Davison rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dierre Hill Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jamari Johnson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under King Miller rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dante Moore pass yds 224.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jayden Maiava pass yds 259.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Waymond Jordan rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Evan Stewart 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dakorien Moore 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Dakorien Moore 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Evan Stewart 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Waymond Jordan rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayden Maiava pass yds 259.5 Over· Pass Yds Over King Miller rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dante Moore pass yds 224.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jamari Johnson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mark Bowman 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jordon Davison rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dierre Hill Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Evan Stewart receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trent Mosley receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dakorien Moore receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kayden Dixon-Wyatt receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mark Bowman receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 USC Trojans Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1784 vs 1844 (50% blend)· Points per game 39.8 vs 47.5 (capped at ±4%p)
runs 27/42 Miss
53% Both total runs 87.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 87.5 Under· Totals Under Oregon Ducks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/28 Hit
46% Team stats6 USC Trojans team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points Oregon Ducks team runs 47.5 Over· Team Points Oregon Ducks Team pass yds 369.5 Over· Team Pass Yds USC Trojans Team pass yds 339.5 Over· Team Pass Yds USC Trojans Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Oregon Ducks Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.