Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State Rams — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 3 (Sat) · 10:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Oregon State Beavers 64%
Colorado State Rams 36%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-2 vs 2-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
40.3 vs 32.3
-4.0%p
Head to head Oregon State Beavers Colorado State Rams
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 177yds (per game 44.3)· opponent defense matchup ×0.98 → expected 43.6 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cedric Ross receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Oregon State Beavers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% Colorado State Rams wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Oregon State Beavers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Colorado State Rams wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Oregon State Beavers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Colorado State Rams wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Oregon State Beavers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Colorado State Rams wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Oregon State Beavers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-2 vs 2-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 56/27 Hit
64% Both total runs 72.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 72.5 Under· Totals Under Colorado State Rams Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 3-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 40.3 vs 32.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 26/57 Miss
36% player stat32 JH Jackson Harper receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 177yds (per game 44.3)· opponent defense matchup ×0.98 → expected 43.6 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cedric Ross receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Eric Olsen receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mel Brown rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jesse Legree receiving yds 94.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cornell Hatcher Jr. rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aeryn Hampton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under AJ Newberry rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Durell Robinson rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Braden Atkinson pass yds 269.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hauss Hejny pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Aeryn Hampton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jackson Harper 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Terrence Smith Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jesse Legree 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jackson Harper 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Terrence Smith Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jesse Legree 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Aeryn Hampton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Hauss Hejny pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Braden Atkinson pass yds 269.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Durell Robinson rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over AJ Newberry rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cornell Hatcher Jr. rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Aeryn Hampton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jesse Legree receiving yds 94.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mel Brown rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cedric Ross receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Eric Olsen receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jackson Harper receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Colorado State Rams team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Oregon State Beavers team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Colorado State Rams Team pass yds 289.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Oregon State Beavers Team pass yds 369.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Oregon State Beavers Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Colorado State Rams Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.