Portland State Vikings at Oregon Ducks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 2:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Portland State Vikings 3%
Oregon Ducks 97%
Locked before start
Oregon Ducks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 97% Hit Oregon Ducks wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 67% Oregon Ducks wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 57% Showing 3 of 11 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 0-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 47.5 vs 22.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
47.5 vs 22.2
+4.0%p
Head to head Portland State Vikings Oregon Ducks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 5games 194yds (per game 38.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 46.3· opponent defense matchup ×1.04 → expected 48.3 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
TE sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Dakorien Moore receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Delon Thompson rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Oregon Ducks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 0-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 47.5 vs 22.2 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 84/1 Hit
97% Both total runs 69.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 69.5 Under· Totals Under Portland State Vikings Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-4 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 0/85 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Oregon Ducks wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 47.5 vs 22.2 → expected margin 25.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
67% Portland State Vikings within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Oregon Ducks wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Portland State Vikings within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Oregon Ducks wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Portland State Vikings within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Oregon Ducks wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Portland State Vikings within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 TB Tanner Beaman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 5games 194yds (per game 38.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 46.3· opponent defense matchup ×1.04 → expected 48.3 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Dakorien Moore receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Delon Thompson rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Evan Stewart receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Niall Raby rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jamari Johnson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Terence Loville receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cru Newman receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dierre Hill Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jordon Davison rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Gabe Downing pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Dante Moore pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Cru Newman 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dakorien Moore 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Evan Stewart 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Evan Stewart 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Terence Loville 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Terence Loville 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dakorien Moore 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cru Newman 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Dante Moore pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jordon Davison rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Gabe Downing pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Dierre Hill Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Terence Loville receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cru Newman receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamari Johnson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Evan Stewart receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Niall Raby rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dakorien Moore receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Delon Thompson rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tanner Beaman receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Oregon Ducks team runs 47.5 Over· Team Points Portland State Vikings team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Portland State Vikings Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Portland State Vikings Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Oregon Ducks Team pass yds 389.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Oregon Ducks Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.