Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 3 (Sat) · 8:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Purdue Boilermakers 43%
Illinois Fighting Illini 57%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-3 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 34.0 vs 32.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
34.0 vs 32.0
+2.0%p
Head to head Purdue Boilermakers Illinois Fighting Illini
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Ty Robinson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aidan Laughery rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Collin Dixon receiving yds 84.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Purdue Boilermakers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 2.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Purdue Boilermakers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 2.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
71% Purdue Boilermakers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Purdue Boilermakers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Illinois Fighting Illini wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Illinois Fighting Illini wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Illinois Fighting Illini wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Illinois Fighting Illini wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Ty Robinson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aidan Laughery rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Collin Dixon receiving yds 84.5 Under· Rec Yds Under George Burhenn receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jerrick Gibson rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Hudson Clement receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Fame Ijeboi receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Fame Ijeboi rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Katin Houser rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Collin Dixon 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Chauncey Magwood receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Katin Houser pass yds 244.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hudson Clement 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryan Browne pass yds 259.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Chauncey Magwood 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Fame Ijeboi 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Hudson Clement 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Ryan Browne pass yds 259.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Chauncey Magwood 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Fame Ijeboi 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Katin Houser pass yds 244.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Katin Houser rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Collin Dixon 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Chauncey Magwood receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Fame Ijeboi rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hudson Clement receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Fame Ijeboi receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jerrick Gibson rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Aidan Laughery rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Collin Dixon receiving yds 84.5 Over· Rec Yds Over George Burhenn receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Robinson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Illinois Fighting Illini Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 34.0 vs 32.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/25 Miss
57% Both total runs 66.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 66.5 Over· Totals Over Purdue Boilermakers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 2-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/18 Hit
43% Team stats6 Illinois Fighting Illini team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points Purdue Boilermakers team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Illinois Fighting Illini Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Illinois Fighting Illini Team rush yds 184.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Purdue Boilermakers Team pass yds 359.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Purdue Boilermakers Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.