Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 3:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Purdue Boilermakers 3%
UCLA Bruins 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1660 vs 1288 (50% blend)· Points per game 44.8 vs 32.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1660 vs 1288
+25.1%p Points per game
44.8 vs 32.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Purdue Boilermakers UCLA Bruins
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Wayne Knight receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Semaj Morgan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under George Burhenn receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 UCLA Bruins Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1660 vs 1288 (50% blend)· Points per game 44.8 vs 32.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 52/39 Hit
97% Both total runs 76.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 76.5 Under· Totals Under Purdue Boilermakers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 38/53 Miss
3% Winning margin8 UCLA Bruins wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 44.8 vs 32.0 → expected margin 12.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
73% UCLA Bruins wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 44.8 vs 32.0 → expected margin 12.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
63% UCLA Bruins wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Purdue Boilermakers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 UCLA Bruins wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Purdue Boilermakers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Purdue Boilermakers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Purdue Boilermakers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Wayne Knight receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Semaj Morgan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Semaj Morgan 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under George Burhenn receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Fame Ijeboi receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chauncey Magwood 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Fame Ijeboi 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Nico Iamaleava rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chauncey Magwood receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Fame Ijeboi rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Wayne Knight rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nico Iamaleava pass yds 219.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brian Rowe Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jerrick Gibson rush yds 27.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ryan Browne pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brian Rowe Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Brian Rowe Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Ryan Browne pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jerrick Gibson rush yds 27.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nico Iamaleava pass yds 219.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Brian Rowe Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Wayne Knight rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Fame Ijeboi rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nico Iamaleava rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chauncey Magwood receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Fame Ijeboi receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chauncey Magwood 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Fame Ijeboi 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Semaj Morgan receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Semaj Morgan 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over George Burhenn receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Wayne Knight receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UCLA Bruins team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points Purdue Boilermakers team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Purdue Boilermakers Team pass yds 324.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UCLA Bruins Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UCLA Bruins Team rush yds 314.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Purdue Boilermakers Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.