Rice Owls at Fresno State Bulldogs — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 27 (Sun) · 2:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Rice Owls 3%
Fresno State Bulldogs 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1604 vs 1169 (50% blend)· Points per game 28.3 vs 19.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1604 vs 1169
+26.5%p Points per game
28.3 vs 19.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Rice Owls Fresno State Bulldogs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Rayshon Luke 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Clark 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Josiah Freeman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Fresno State Bulldogs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1604 vs 1169 (50% blend)· Points per game 28.3 vs 19.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 38/25 Hit
97% Both total runs 47.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 47.5 Over· Totals Over Rice Owls Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/39 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 28.3 vs 19.0 → expected margin 9.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
66% Rice Owls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 9.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
64% Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Rice Owls within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Rice Owls within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Rice Owls within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Rayshon Luke 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Clark 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Josiah Freeman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Max Mosey receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rayshon Luke rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Barry Jackson Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Clark receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ezekiel Avit receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jahlil McClain receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacurri Brown rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bryson Donelson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tyvonn Byars rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayden Mandal pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jacurri Brown pass yds 139.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Josiah Freeman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Barry Jackson Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Barry Jackson Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Josiah Freeman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jayden Mandal pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jacurri Brown pass yds 139.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Bryson Donelson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tyvonn Byars rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ezekiel Avit receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jahlil McClain receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jacurri Brown rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jordan Clark receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Barry Jackson Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rayshon Luke rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josiah Freeman receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Max Mosey receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rayshon Luke 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jordan Clark 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Fresno State Bulldogs team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Rice Owls team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Fresno State Bulldogs Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Rice Owls Team rush yds 299.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Fresno State Bulldogs Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Rice Owls Team pass yds 89.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.