Sam Houston Bearkats at Liberty Flames — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 8 (Thu) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Sam Houston Bearkats 3%
Liberty Flames 97%
Locked before start
Liberty Flames Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 97% Hit Sam Houston Bearkats within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 78% Sam Houston Bearkats within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 69% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 5-1 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1772 vs 1095 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.4 vs 27.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1772 vs 1095
+29.1%p
Head to head Sam Houston Bearkats Liberty Flames
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Makai Jackson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grady O'Neill receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Reed receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Liberty Flames Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 5-1 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1772 vs 1095 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.4 vs 27.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
runs 35/4 Hit
97% Both total runs 58.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 58.5 Over· Totals Over Sam Houston Bearkats Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 5-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
runs 3/36 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Sam Houston Bearkats within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 2.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
78% Sam Houston Bearkats within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 2.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% Sam Houston Bearkats within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Sam Houston Bearkats within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Liberty Flames wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Liberty Flames wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Liberty Flames wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Liberty Flames wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Makai Jackson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grady O'Neill receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Reed receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grady O'Neill 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Makai Jackson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jamari Person receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Darius Copeland receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tim Burns Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Peyton Jones rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Landan Brown rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Alton McCaskill rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kam Davis rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Deshawn Purdie pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Landyn Locke pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jamari Person 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Chris Reed 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Chris Reed 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jamari Person 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Landyn Locke pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Deshawn Purdie pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kam Davis rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Alton McCaskill rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Peyton Jones rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Landan Brown rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tim Burns Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Darius Copeland receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamari Person receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Makai Jackson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Grady O'Neill 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Chris Reed receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Makai Jackson receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Grady O'Neill receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Sam Houston Bearkats team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Liberty Flames team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Sam Houston Bearkats Team pass yds 269.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Sam Houston Bearkats Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Liberty Flames Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Liberty Flames Team rush yds 234.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.