Sam Houston Bearkats at Texas Tech Red Raiders — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Sam Houston Bearkats 3%
Texas Tech Red Raiders 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1860 vs 1142 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 27.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1860 vs 1142
+29.3%p Points per game
36.3 vs 27.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Sam Houston Bearkats Texas Tech Red Raiders
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Coy Eakin receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Malcolm Simmons receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grady O'Neill receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Texas Tech Red Raiders Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1860 vs 1142 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 27.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 49/15 Hit
97% Both total runs 64.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 64.5 Over· Totals Over Sam Houston Bearkats Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/50 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Sam Houston Bearkats within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% Texas Tech Red Raiders wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 27.8 → expected margin 8.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
63% Sam Houston Bearkats within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Texas Tech Red Raiders wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Sam Houston Bearkats within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Texas Tech Red Raiders wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Sam Houston Bearkats within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Texas Tech Red Raiders wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Coy Eakin receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Malcolm Simmons receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grady O'Neill receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Reed receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kenny Johnson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tim Burns Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cameron Dickey rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Coy Eakin 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Grady O'Neill 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Will Hammond pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kenny Johnson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Landyn Locke pass yds 269.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Alton McCaskill rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Quinten Joyner rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Landan Brown rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chris Reed 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chris Reed 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Quinten Joyner rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Landan Brown rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Will Hammond pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kenny Johnson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Landyn Locke pass yds 269.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Alton McCaskill rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cameron Dickey rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Coy Eakin 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Grady O'Neill 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Kenny Johnson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tim Burns Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Reed receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Coy Eakin receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Malcolm Simmons receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Grady O'Neill receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Sam Houston Bearkats team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Texas Tech Red Raiders team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Texas Tech Red Raiders Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Sam Houston Bearkats Team pass yds 344.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Texas Tech Red Raiders Team rush yds 199.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Sam Houston Bearkats Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.