Samford Bulldogs at UAB Blazers — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Samford Bulldogs 19%
UAB Blazers 81%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 21.8 vs 23.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
21.8 vs 23.0
-1.2%p
Head to head Samford Bulldogs UAB Blazers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Cayden Aukerman receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Smith receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under EJ Reid receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 UAB Blazers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 1.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
84% UAB Blazers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 1.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
75% UAB Blazers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UAB Blazers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Samford Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Samford Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Samford Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Samford Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 UAB Blazers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 21.8 vs 23.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
81% Both total runs 44.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 44.5 Under· Totals Under Samford Bulldogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
19% player stat32 Cayden Aukerman receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Smith receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under EJ Reid receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ken Cherry rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marquise Henderson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bam McReynolds rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ty Mims receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under EJ Reid 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Domonique Thomas rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Preston Bird receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cayden Aukerman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rod Robinson II rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ty Mims 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Gabarri Johnson pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ryder Burton pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Preston Bird 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Preston Bird 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryder Burton pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ty Mims 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Gabarri Johnson pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Rod Robinson II rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bam McReynolds rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ty Mims receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over EJ Reid 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Domonique Thomas rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Preston Bird receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cayden Aukerman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Ken Cherry rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Marquise Henderson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over CJ Smith receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over EJ Reid receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cayden Aukerman receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UAB Blazers team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Samford Bulldogs team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points UAB Blazers Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Samford Bulldogs Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UAB Blazers Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Samford Bulldogs Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.