San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Diego State Aztecs 9%
Toledo Rockets 91%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1614 vs 1415 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.3 vs 23.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1614 vs 1415
+18.5%p Points per game
43.3 vs 23.0
+4.0%p
Head to head San Diego State Aztecs Toledo Rockets
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Nathan Acevedo 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Bryson Hammer receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Bond receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Toledo Rockets Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1614 vs 1415 (50% blend)· Points per game 43.3 vs 23.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/17 Hit
91% Both total runs 66.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 66.5 Under· Totals Under San Diego State Aztecs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 16/42 Miss
9% Winning margin8 Toledo Rockets wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 23.0 → expected margin 20.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
86% Toledo Rockets wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 43.3 vs 23.0 → expected margin 20.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
80% Toledo Rockets wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Toledo Rockets wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ San Diego State Aztecs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 San Diego State Aztecs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 San Diego State Aztecs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 San Diego State Aztecs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Nathan Acevedo 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Bryson Hammer receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Bond receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nathan Acevedo receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bryson Hammer 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Javion Kinnard rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jordan Napier 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under CJ Miller rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Lucky Sutton rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jacob Bostick receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javion Kinnard receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adjatay Dabbs receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under John Alan Richter pass yds 259.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jayden Denegal pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Autavius Ison rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Adjatay Dabbs 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Adjatay Dabbs 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Autavius Ison rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over John Alan Richter pass yds 259.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jayden Denegal pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Adjatay Dabbs receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over CJ Miller rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Lucky Sutton rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jacob Bostick receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javion Kinnard receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Napier 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Bryson Hammer 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Javion Kinnard rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bryson Hammer receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rico Bond receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nathan Acevedo receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nathan Acevedo 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Toledo Rockets team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points San Diego State Aztecs team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points San Diego State Aztecs Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Toledo Rockets Team pass yds 329.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Toledo Rockets Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds San Diego State Aztecs Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.