San José State Spartans at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 3:59 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model San José State Spartans 80%
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 20%
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
18.0 vs 23.3
+4.0%p
Head to head San José State Spartans Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Blaze Kamoku receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jabari Bates rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under DeVon Rice rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 San José State Spartans Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
80% Both total runs 41.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 41.5 Over· Totals Over Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 18.0 vs 23.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
20% Winning margin8 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
76% Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 5.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 San José State Spartans wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 San José State Spartans wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ San José State Spartans wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ San José State Spartans wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Blaze Kamoku receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jabari Bates rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under DeVon Rice rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sitani Mikaele rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Anthony Ivey receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kainoa Carvalho receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Audric Harris receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Clark receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cooper Hoch receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Micah Alejado pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kainoa Carvalho 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Luke Weaver pass yds 219.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Luke Weaver rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under DeVon Rice 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Carson Clark 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cooper Hoch 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Carson Clark 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cooper Hoch 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under DeVon Rice 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Luke Weaver rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Luke Weaver pass yds 219.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Micah Alejado pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kainoa Carvalho 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Carson Clark receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cooper Hoch receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kainoa Carvalho receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Audric Harris receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DeVon Rice rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Sitani Mikaele rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Anthony Ivey receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Blaze Kamoku receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jabari Bates rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Team stats6 San José State Spartans team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Team pass yds 274.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San José State Spartans Team pass yds 254.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San José State Spartans Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.