SE Louisiana Lions at UL Monroe Warhawks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate SE Louisiana Lions 97%
UL Monroe Warhawks 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 0-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
21.3 vs 32.4
+4.0%p
Head to head SE Louisiana Lions UL Monroe Warhawks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 141yds (per game 35.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 39.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.08 → expected 43.1 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Dkhai Joseph receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lonnie Shinn receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 SE Louisiana Lions Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 0-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 38/36 Hit
97% Both total runs 53.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 53.5 Under· Totals Under UL Monroe Warhawks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-3 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 21.3 vs 32.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/39 Miss
3% Winning margin8 SE Louisiana Lions wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 32.4 vs 21.3 → expected margin 11.1 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
69% SE Louisiana Lions wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UL Monroe Warhawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 SE Louisiana Lions wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UL Monroe Warhawks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 SE Louisiana Lions wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ UL Monroe Warhawks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UL Monroe Warhawks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 MJ Marcellus Jackson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 141yds (per game 35.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 39.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.08 → expected 43.1 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Dkhai Joseph receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lonnie Shinn receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bryson Roland rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tristan Goodly receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Deantre Jackson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chad Elzy Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Austin Carlisle rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nic Trujillo receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aidan Armenta pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under LT Robinson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyle Lowe pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Tristan Goodly 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Dkhai Joseph 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Marcellus Jackson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Bryce Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Marcellus Jackson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Bryce Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Dkhai Joseph 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Tristan Goodly 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Aidan Armenta pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over LT Robinson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kyle Lowe pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nic Trujillo receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Austin Carlisle rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chad Elzy Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Deantre Jackson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bryson Roland rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tristan Goodly receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Marcellus Jackson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dkhai Joseph receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lonnie Shinn receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 SE Louisiana Lions team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points UL Monroe Warhawks team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points SE Louisiana Lions Team rush yds 189.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UL Monroe Warhawks Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UL Monroe Warhawks Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds SE Louisiana Lions Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.