SMU Mustangs at Louisville Cardinals — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate SMU Mustangs 43%
Louisville Cardinals 57%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1674 vs 1695 (50% blend)· Points per game 41.3 vs 37.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
41.3 vs 37.0
+4.0%p CFBD strength index
1674 vs 1695
+2.9%p
Head to head SMU Mustangs Louisville Cardinals
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Lawayne McCoy receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keyjuan Brown rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tre Richardson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 SMU Mustangs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% SMU Mustangs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% SMU Mustangs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Louisville Cardinals wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ SMU Mustangs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Louisville Cardinals wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Louisville Cardinals wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Louisville Cardinals wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Lawayne McCoy receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keyjuan Brown rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tre Richardson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Yamir Knight receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TreyShun Hurry 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Dramekco Green rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Yannick Smith receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaleel Skinner receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Cooper receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lincoln Kienholz pass yds 209.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kendrick Raphael rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaac Brown rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kevin Jennings pass yds 299.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jalen Cooper 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Richardson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Yamir Knight 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Yamir Knight 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Richardson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jalen Cooper 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaac Brown rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kevin Jennings pass yds 299.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Lincoln Kienholz pass yds 209.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kendrick Raphael rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaleel Skinner receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalen Cooper receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TreyShun Hurry 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Dramekco Green rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Yannick Smith receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tre Richardson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Yamir Knight receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keyjuan Brown rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Lawayne McCoy receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Louisville Cardinals Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1674 vs 1695 (50% blend)· Points per game 41.3 vs 37.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/32 Hit
57% Both total runs 78.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 78.5 Under· Totals Under SMU Mustangs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/42 Miss
43% Team stats6 Louisville Cardinals team runs 41.5 Over· Team Points SMU Mustangs team runs 37.5 Over· Team Points Louisville Cardinals Team pass yds 259.5 Over· Team Pass Yds SMU Mustangs Team pass yds 424.5 Over· Team Pass Yds SMU Mustangs Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Louisville Cardinals Team rush yds 214.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.