South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 8 (Thu) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast South Alabama Jaguars 48%
Arkansas State Red Wolves 52%
Locked before start
South Alabama Jaguars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 57% South Alabama Jaguars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 48% Hit Hunter Summers receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 64% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-4 vs 4-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1306 vs 1369 (50% blend)· Points per game 24.0 vs 35.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
24.0 vs 35.4
-4.0%p
Head to head South Alabama Jaguars Arkansas State Red Wolves
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 64%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning season 5games 263yds (per game 52.6)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 49.9· opponent defense matchup ×1.05 → expected 52.6 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Eager receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Arkansas State Red Wolves within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 11.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
70% Arkansas State Red Wolves within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 South Alabama Jaguars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Arkansas State Red Wolves within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 South Alabama Jaguars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Arkansas State Red Wolves within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 South Alabama Jaguars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ South Alabama Jaguars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 HS Hunter Summers receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 5games 263yds (per game 52.6)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 49.9· opponent defense matchup ×1.05 → expected 52.6 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
64% Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Eager receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Jones-Thomas receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Hunter Summers 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under James Lee rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chauncy Cobb receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under PJ Martin rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Solomon Baggett rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaylen Bonelli receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trey Owens pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jared Hollins pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Keenan Phillips rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chauncy Cobb 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Brendan Jenkins 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Brendan Jenkins 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Chauncy Cobb 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Keenan Phillips rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jared Hollins pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Trey Owens pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Solomon Baggett rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaylen Bonelli receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over James Lee rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chauncy Cobb receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over PJ Martin rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hunter Summers 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Anthony Eager receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiah Jones-Thomas receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Hunter Summers receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Arkansas State Red Wolves Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-4 vs 4-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1306 vs 1369 (50% blend)· Points per game 24.0 vs 35.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
runs 49/57 Miss
52% Both total runs 59.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 59.5 Under· Totals Under South Alabama Jaguars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-2 vs 2-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
runs 56/50 Hit
48% Team stats6 South Alabama Jaguars team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas State Red Wolves team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas State Red Wolves Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds South Alabama Jaguars Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arkansas State Red Wolves Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Alabama Jaguars Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.