South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky Wildcats — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate South Alabama Jaguars 15%
Kentucky Wildcats 85%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1553 vs 1346 (50% blend)· Points per game 34.5 vs 31.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1553 vs 1346
+18.9%p Points per game
34.5 vs 31.3
+3.2%p
Head to head South Alabama Jaguars Kentucky Wildcats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Baxter rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Henry Boyer receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Kentucky Wildcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1553 vs 1346 (50% blend)· Points per game 34.5 vs 31.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 45/22 Hit
85% Both total runs 65.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 65.5 Under· Totals Under South Alabama Jaguars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 21/46 Miss
15% Winning margin8 South Alabama Jaguars within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
77% South Alabama Jaguars within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
68% South Alabama Jaguars within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 South Alabama Jaguars within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Kentucky Wildcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Kentucky Wildcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Kentucky Wildcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Kentucky Wildcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CJ Baxter rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Henry Boyer receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under PJ Martin rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Jones-Thomas receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kenny Darby 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jason Patterson rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kenny Darby receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Willie Rodriguez receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keenan Phillips rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brendan Jenkins 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Anthony Eager receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jared Hollins pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kenny Minchey pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Willie Rodriguez 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Willie Rodriguez 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Kenny Minchey pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jared Hollins pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Anthony Eager receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jason Patterson rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kenny Darby receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Willie Rodriguez receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keenan Phillips rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brendan Jenkins 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Kenny Darby 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over CJ Baxter rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Henry Boyer receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over PJ Martin rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jeremiah Jones-Thomas receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brendan Jenkins receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Kentucky Wildcats team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points South Alabama Jaguars team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points Kentucky Wildcats Team pass yds 199.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Alabama Jaguars Team pass yds 239.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Alabama Jaguars Team rush yds 204.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Kentucky Wildcats Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.