South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tide — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate South Carolina Gamecocks 3%
Alabama Crimson Tide 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1929 vs 1655 (50% blend)· Points per game 48.0 vs 38.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1929 vs 1655
+21.9%p Points per game
48.0 vs 38.5
+4.0%p
Head to head South Carolina Gamecocks Alabama Crimson Tide
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Nyck Harbor receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ryan Coleman-Williams receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lotzeir Brooks receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Alabama Crimson Tide Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1929 vs 1655 (50% blend)· Points per game 48.0 vs 38.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 49/19 Hit
97% Both total runs 86.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 86.5 Under· Totals Under South Carolina Gamecocks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 18/50 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 48.0 vs 38.5 → expected margin 9.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
65% South Carolina Gamecocks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 9.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
63% Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ South Carolina Gamecocks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ South Carolina Gamecocks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ South Carolina Gamecocks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Nyck Harbor receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ryan Coleman-Williams receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lotzeir Brooks receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lotzeir Brooks 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryan Coleman-Williams 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Marshall Pritchett receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Matt Fuller rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under LaNorris Sellers rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Donovan Murph receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nyck Harbor 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Matt Fuller receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under LaNorris Sellers pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Keelon Russell pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Keelon Russell rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Matt Fuller 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Hill rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Daniel Hill rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Matt Fuller 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Keelon Russell pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Keelon Russell rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over LaNorris Sellers pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Matt Fuller receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Matt Fuller rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over LaNorris Sellers rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Donovan Murph receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nyck Harbor 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Marshall Pritchett receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ryan Coleman-Williams receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lotzeir Brooks receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lotzeir Brooks 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Ryan Coleman-Williams 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Nyck Harbor receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 South Carolina Gamecocks team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Alabama Crimson Tide team runs 48.5 Over· Team Points Alabama Crimson Tide Team pass yds 279.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Carolina Gamecocks Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Alabama Crimson Tide Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds South Carolina Gamecocks Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.