South Dakota Coyotes at Boise State Broncos — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 2:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate South Dakota Coyotes 62%
Boise State Broncos 38%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
33.8 vs 38.0
+4.0%p
Head to head South Dakota Coyotes Boise State Broncos
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Rasean Jones receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keyondray Jones-Logan receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tennel Bryant 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Boise State Broncos within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
75% Boise State Broncos within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% Boise State Broncos within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 South Dakota Coyotes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Boise State Broncos within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 South Dakota Coyotes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ South Dakota Coyotes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ South Dakota Coyotes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Rasean Jones receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keyondray Jones-Logan receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tennel Bryant 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Charles Pierre Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tennel Bryant receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tysen Boze receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sire Gaines receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Fletcher rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dylan Riley rush yds 109.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cam Bates receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Austyn Modrzewski pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Tysen Boze 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Sire Gaines rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cam Bates 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Maddux Madsen pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rasean Jones 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rasean Jones 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Maddux Madsen pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Cam Bates 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Sire Gaines rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dylan Riley rush yds 109.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cam Bates receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Austyn Modrzewski pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tysen Boze 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Sire Gaines receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Carson Fletcher rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tysen Boze receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tennel Bryant receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Charles Pierre Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rasean Jones receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keyondray Jones-Logan receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tennel Bryant 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over games4 South Dakota Coyotes Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/39 Miss
62% Both total runs 71.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 71.5 Under· Totals Under Boise State Broncos Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 33.8 vs 38.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 38/25 Hit
38% Team stats6 Boise State Broncos team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points South Dakota Coyotes team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Boise State Broncos Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Dakota Coyotes Team pass yds 254.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Dakota Coyotes Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Boise State Broncos Team rush yds 264.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.