South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 9:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate South Florida Bulls 97%
Bowling Green Falcons 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 0-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1156 vs 1652
+25.4%p Points per game
8.3 vs 30.0
+4.0%p
Head to head South Florida Bulls Bowling Green Falcons
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Arhmad Branch receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Scoby receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Winn Sharp receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 South Florida Bulls Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 0-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/7 Hit
97% Both total runs 38.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 38.5 Over· Totals Over Bowling Green Falcons Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-4 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1156 vs 1652 (50% blend)· Points per game 8.3 vs 30.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 6/15 Miss
3% Winning margin8 South Florida Bulls wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 30.0 vs 8.3 → expected margin 21.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
93% South Florida Bulls wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 30.0 vs 8.3 → expected margin 21.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
87% South Florida Bulls wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ South Florida Bulls wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Bowling Green Falcons within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Bowling Green Falcons within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Arhmad Branch receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Scoby receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Winn Sharp receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Eli Jacon-Duffy receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jason Collins Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Joshua Porter 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Austyn Dendy rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under D.J. Crowther rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Joshua Porter receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jay Kastantin pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Nakai Amachree rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Scoby 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Luke Kromenhoek pass yds 84.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Winn Sharp 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Bryson Rodgers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Winn Sharp 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Bryson Rodgers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Scoby 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Luke Kromenhoek pass yds 84.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jay Kastantin pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nakai Amachree rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Austyn Dendy rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over D.J. Crowther rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Joshua Porter receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Eli Jacon-Duffy receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jason Collins Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Joshua Porter 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Winn Sharp receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiah Scoby receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Arhmad Branch receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Bowling Green Falcons team runs 8.5 Over· Team Points South Florida Bulls team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Bowling Green Falcons Team pass yds 124.5 Over· Team Pass Yds South Florida Bulls Team pass yds 154.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Bowling Green Falcons Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds South Florida Bulls Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.