South Florida Bulls at UTSA Roadrunners — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 8 (Thu) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast South Florida Bulls 81%
UTSA Roadrunners 19%
Locked before start
South Florida Bulls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 72% South Florida Bulls within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 63% Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 62% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 4-2 vs 5-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
31.4 vs 26.6
-4.0%p CFBD strength index
1516 vs 1611
+3.4%p
Head to head South Florida Bulls UTSA Roadrunners
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
David Amador II receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Joshua Porter receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 South Florida Bulls Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-2 vs 5-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
runs 24/32 Miss
81% Both total runs 58.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 58.5 Over· Totals Over UTSA Roadrunners Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 5-1 vs 4-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1516 vs 1611 (50% blend)· Points per game 31.4 vs 26.6 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
runs 31/25 Hit
19% Winning margin8 South Florida Bulls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% South Florida Bulls within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.8 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
63% South Florida Bulls within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 UTSA Roadrunners wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ South Florida Bulls within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 UTSA Roadrunners wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UTSA Roadrunners wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UTSA Roadrunners wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 David Amador II receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Joshua Porter receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DJ Allen Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Will Henderson III rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under D.J. Crowther rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mekhi Anderson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Arhmad Branch receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brandon High Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under David Amador II 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Luke Kromenhoek pass yds 74.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jason Collins Jr. rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mekhi Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Owen McCown pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Joshua Porter 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Bryson Rodgers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Bryson Rodgers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Joshua Porter 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Owen McCown pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Mekhi Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Luke Kromenhoek pass yds 74.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jason Collins Jr. rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over David Amador II 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Brandon High Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mekhi Anderson receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Arhmad Branch receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Will Henderson III rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over D.J. Crowther rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over DJ Allen Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Joshua Porter receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over David Amador II receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UTSA Roadrunners team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points South Florida Bulls team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points South Florida Bulls Team pass yds 169.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UTSA Roadrunners Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UTSA Roadrunners Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds South Florida Bulls Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.